Below you will find county-by-county maps and tables that illustrate the data in this study.

Click on chart for a larger version below.

More and more people are building homes in the western "wildland urban interface", the forested areas where housing borders undeveloped public lands. With more homes built in forested areas, it has become increasingly expensive to fight the inevitable wildfires that are part of life in the arid West. Building remote homes on the outskirts of western wildlands is placing a huge strain on U.S. firefighting efforts. The cost to U.S. taxpayers of protecting privately owned properties in the wildland urban interface has been estimated by Forest Service managers to be as high as $1 billion each year.

Most studies of wildland fire and residential development have focused on the cost of firefighting, damage to private property and solutions such as fuel reduction and fire-safe home building. While some studies quantify the number of homes being built near national forests, until now little research has demonstrated the potential severity of the problem in the future.

On this website, Headwaters Economics has prepared maps and graphs illustrating this emerging problem for western communities. Our analysis takes a long view, looking at the potential for more home construction next to fire-prone public lands and implications for future wildfire fighting costs. With the release of these findings, we hope to refocus the attention of policy makers and western communities on the ramifications of current growth trends, and open a dialogue about the needed course correction to keep homes and firefighters safe and firefighting costs in check.

Key findings of our research include:

• Only 14% of forested western private land adjacent to public land is currently developed for residential use. Based on current growth trends, there is tremendous potential for future development on the remaining 86%.
• Given the skyrocketing cost of fighting wildfires in recent years (on average $1.3 billion each year between 2000-2005), this potential development would create an unmanageable financial burden for taxpayers.
• If homes were built in 50% of the forested areas where private land borders public land, annual firefighting costs could range from $2.3 billion to $4.3 billion per year. By way of comparison, the U.S. Forest Service's annual budget is approximately $4.5 billion.
• One in five homes in the wildland urban interface is a second home or cabin, compared to one in twenty-five homes on other western private lands.
• Residential lots built near wildlands take up more than six times the space of homes built in other places. On average, 3.2 acres per person are consumed for housing in the wildland urban interface, compared to 0.5 acres on other western private lands.

Existing Risk Map - Click to Zoom
Yellow areas on the map illustrate existing development in fire-prone areas (forested areas adjacent public lands that have been developed); all other development is shown in red; public lands are shown in green.

State and Region Summary Statistics
West-Wide		3,290.0	20,350.1	14.0%	915,071	21.0%
California		871.8	4,257.0	17.0%	341,175	19.0%
Washington		637.1	2,331.5	21.5%	198,119	8.0%
Oregon		622.1	5,337.8	10.4%	110,563	15.0%
Colorado		407.7	1,570.4	20.6%	94,739	38.0%
Montana		273.7	2,751.0	9.0%	31,394	24.0%
Idaho		211.0	1,936.8	9.8%	30,026	31.0%
New Mexico		114.4	552.1	17.2%	24,899	34.0%
Arizona		81.8	400.1	17.0%	54,634	34.0%
Utah		29.2	575.3	4.8%	11,734	36.0%
Nevada		23.4	221.9	9.5%	13,184	20.0%
Wyoming		17.8	416.3	4.1%	4,604	44.0%
Top 25 Counties in Region Ranked by Existing Risk Counties are ranked by the number of square miles of developed land in the wildland interface
Josephine County	Oregon	119.1	185.7	39.0%	12,451	5.0%
Jackson County	Oregon	82.9	463.7	15.0%	7,647	5.0%
Lane County	Oregon	78.9	626.6	11.0%	13,704	7.0%
Bonner County	Idaho	76.7	230.5	25.0%	8,020	31.0%
Clallam County	Washington	72.4	166.7	30.0%	13,271	6.0%
El Dorado County	California	69.8	164.3	30.0%	20,233	24.0%
Trinity County	California	64.1	310.9	17.0%	5,331	25.0%
Flathead County	Montana	60.6	223.2	21.0%	7,846	24.0%
Snohomish County	Washington	59.6	75.1	44.0%	17,740	4.0%
Boulder County	Colorado	57.1	37.8	60.0%	5,409	25.0%
Lincoln County	Montana	53.7	348.5	13.0%	3,936	15.0%
Clackamas County	Oregon	46.6	101.7	31.0%	8,033	12.0%
Nevada County	California	46.5	132.9	26.0%	17,173	21.0%
King County	Washington	43.5	69.7	38.0%	34,367	3.0%
San Bernardino County	California	41.2	137.9	23.0%	29,643	45.0%
Douglas County	Oregon	40.5	964.4	4.0%	4,735	8.0%
Tuolumne County	California	40.4	92.8	30.0%	10,807	35.0%
Calaveras County	California	40.0	89.3	31.0%	8,672	40.0%
Larimer County	Colorado	39.5	96.0	29.0%	5,564	50.0%
Thurston County	Washington	38.4	29.7	56.0%	14,815	3.0%
Plumas County	California	37.8	237.1	14.0%	5,788	25.0%
Placer County	California	37.1	154.1	19.0%	15,787	39.0%
Lewis County	Washington	36.4	130.4	22.0%	7,354	15.0%
Deschutes County	Oregon	36.0	62.4	37.0%	15,502	30.0%
Lincoln County	Oregon	35.6	147.4	19.0%	9,510	26.0%
Top 25 Counties in Region Ranked by Potential Risk Counties are ranked by the number of square miles of undeveloped land in the wildland interface.
Douglas County	Oregon	40.5	964.4	4.0%	4,735	8.0%
Lane County	Oregon	78.9	626.6	11.0%	13,704	7.0%
Siskiyou County	California	34.6	528.4	6.0%	3,613	16.0%
Jackson County	Oregon	82.9	463.7	15.0%	7,647	5.0%
Shasta County	California	32.3	413.4	7.0%	6,289	10.0%
Missoula County	Montana	34.2	350.6	9.0%	5,109	13.0%
Lincoln County	Montana	53.7	348.5	13.0%	3,936	15.0%
Klamath County	Oregon	14.9	338.6	4.0%	2,421	23.0%
Clearwater County	Idaho	8.8	324.9	3.0%	1,242	12.0%
Stevens County	Washington	25.7	315.1	8.0%	3,272	10.0%
Trinity County	California	64.1	310.9	17.0%	5,331	25.0%
Shoshone County	Idaho	22.9	308.9	7.0%	3,605	11.0%
Coos County	Oregon	27.1	266.5	9.0%	4,909	7.0%
Sanders County	Montana	16.4	251.3	6.0%	1,434	15.0%
Plumas County	California	37.8	237.1	14.0%	5,788	25.0%
Grant County	Oregon	1.7	235.9	1.0%	275	14.0%
Bonner County	Idaho	76.7	230.5	25.0%	8,020	31.0%
Idaho County	Idaho	13.0	224.8	5.0%	1,192	34.0%
Flathead County	Montana	60.6	223.2	21.0%	7,846	24.0%
Lassen County	California	3.8	222.7	2.0%	699	13.0%
Mendocino County	California	23.7	216.7	10.0%	5,171	13.0%
Linn County	Oregon	4.0	213.0	2.0%	1,192	11.0%
Humboldt County	California	33.3	210.0	14.0%	7,578	12.0%
Josephine County	Oregon	119.1	185.7	39.0%	12,451	5.0%
Clallam County	Washington	72.4	166.7	30.0%	13,271	6.0%

Click on column headers to see all data in the West sorted by that column.

Existing Risk Counties with large areas of developed forested private lands adjacent to fire-prone public lands are shaded darkly in this map. These counties have high risk of wildfire problems.

Potential Risk Counties with large areas of undeveloped forested wildland interface, in which future housing could be built, are shaded darkly in this map. These counties have high potential future risk of wildfire problems.

West | Arizona | California | Colorado | Idaho | Montana | New Mexico | Nevada | Oregon | Utah | Washington | Wyoming

Headwaters Economics
Mail: P.O. Box 7059, Bozeman MT 59771
Deliveries: 810 N. Wallace Avenue, Suite B, Bozeman MT 59715
Ray Rasker Ph.D. 406.570.7044 | Ben Alexander 406.599.7423 | Patty Gude 406.599.7425 | Chris Mehl 406.570.8937
Mark Haggerty 406.570.5626 | Julia Haggerty Ph.D. 406.600.1766 | Jeff van den Noort 406.599.1653

Banner photo is by Ray Rasker.

© 2007 Headwaters Economics Inc. all rights reserved. No part of this work may be copied or reproduced without prior consent.